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Features · 12 min read

Prediction markets and bot P/L, at a glance

The short version

Beyond coins and tokenized assets, CoinNotch can show two other kinds of numbers in your menu bar: prediction-market probabilities from venues like Polymarket and Kalshi, where a contract price between $0.00 and $1.00 reads as an implied probability, and the running profit and loss of a trading bot you run elsewhere. In both cases CoinNotch only displays the number. It does not trade, place bets, connect to your bot's controls, or give signals. This is a read-only glance, and nothing here is financial advice.

A menu-bar ticker is a frame for any number you want to keep half an eye on. Prices are the obvious case, but two others come up a lot: the odds on a prediction market, and how a trading bot is doing. CoinNotch can surface both as menu-bar tickers, with one firm principle that runs through everything the app does. It shows the number. It does not act on it. Understanding that boundary is the whole point of this page.

Not investment adviceCoinNotch is a display tool. It shows publicly available numbers and never trades, places bets, executes orders, connects to a bot's controls, or generates trading signals. Nothing in this article or the app is financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction-market trading carries high risk including total loss, is age-restricted, and is unavailable or restricted in many jurisdictions. Automated trading carries its own substantial risks. Make your own decisions and consult a qualified professional.

Prediction-market probabilities as a ticker

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi turn real-world questions into tradable contracts. The mechanic is simple and elegant: a contract on a yes-or-no outcome trades somewhere between $0.00 and $1.00, and that price reads directly as the market's implied probability. A contract at $0.40 means the market is pricing roughly a forty percent chance of the event. When it resolves, a correct contract settles at $1.00. So the live price is, in effect, a live probability that the crowd is constantly revising.

That makes prediction-market prices a natural fit for a glance. CoinNotch can show the current price, the implied probability, of a market you care about right in the menu bar, the same way it shows a coin price, so you can watch an outcome's odds move through the day without opening the venue. Polymarket settles on-chain and runs globally, while Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, and both expose public market data. CoinNotch reads that public number and displays it. It does not place a position, does not tell you which side to take, and has no connection to your account on either venue.

What CoinNotch shows is the market's number, not a recommendation. An implied probability moving is information, not instruction. The app will never suggest a trade or a side, because displaying a probability and advising a bet are completely different things, and CoinNotch only does the first.

A trading bot's P/L as a ticker

Some people run automated trading bots, through platforms that connect to exchanges and execute strategies on their behalf, and a common wish is to keep an eye on how the bot is doing without sitting in its dashboard. If a bot or platform exposes a running profit-and-loss figure through a public or read-only number, CoinNotch can display that figure in the menu bar as just another ticker, so the bot's performance is a glance away.

The boundary here is even more important than with prices. CoinNotch displays the P/L number only. It does not connect to the bot's trading controls, cannot start, stop, or adjust a strategy, cannot place or close trades, and has no access to the funds or the exchange keys the bot uses. It is a window onto a number the bot already produces, nothing more. The trading happens entirely in the bot and the platform you chose for it, with their own risks and their own controls, and CoinNotch sits outside all of that as a passive display.

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Why display-only is the right line

It would be easy to imagine bolting trading onto a ticker, but that would make it a different and far riskier product, one handling your money, your keys, and your orders, with all the responsibility and regulation that implies. CoinNotch deliberately stays on the display side of that line. The value of a glance tool comes precisely from doing one thing safely: showing you a number you care about, accurately and always-visible, while every decision and every action stays with you and the platforms you have chosen for them.

This is the same principle behind everything in the app. It shows coin prices without touching your wallet, shows tokenized-asset prices without providing access to any security, and shows prediction-market odds and bot P/L without trading or advising. The numbers come to you, and the actions stay yours. For how the core price display works, see the features overview, and for the privacy model, the privacy review.

Frequently asked questions

Can CoinNotch show Polymarket or Kalshi odds?
It can display a prediction market's current contract price, which reads as an implied probability between 0 and 100 percent, in the menu bar as a ticker. It shows the public number only and does not place or manage any position.
Does CoinNotch place bets or trades?
No, never. CoinNotch is a display tool. It shows prediction-market probabilities and bot P/L as numbers but does not trade, bet, execute orders, or connect to any trading controls.
Can CoinNotch control my trading bot?
No. If a bot exposes a running P/L figure, CoinNotch can display that number. It has no access to the bot's controls, your funds, or exchange keys, and cannot start, stop, or change a strategy.
Does CoinNotch give trading signals?
No. It displays numbers like prices and probabilities, which are information, not instructions. The app never suggests a trade, a side, or a position, and nothing in it is financial advice.
Is prediction-market trading risky?
Yes. It carries high risk including total loss, is age-restricted, and is unavailable or restricted in many jurisdictions. CoinNotch only displays public numbers and is not a venue, a broker, or an advisor.